The Rise of the Right in Europe:
By Basil Bye ERIS President
From a presentation at ERIS meeting June 2019
Introduction:
It’s one hundred years since the birth of fascism. It’s a chilling thought to witness the resurgence of fascist ideas in Europe today. Democracy is perhaps more fragile than we think. Just prior to the Second World War, two-thirds of Europe had authoritarian rulers. Dictatorship disappeared from the western half of Europe. Within months of each other (1974-5), the authoritarian regimes in Portugal, Greece and Spain collapsed, peacefully without external military intervention. Residual extreme right-wing elements remained in every European country. Today, we can see the resurgence of fascist tendencies. Why?
Background – The Political Challenges of Globalisation:
Of course, Europe’s exposure to global influences was nothing new. The appearance of the internet in the 1990’s had made the world seem smaller. Ordinary people in Europe were more aware of the intrusion of the restof the globe into their lives. The world was interconnected and interdependent as never before. But globalisation presented difficult political challenges to European governments.
How European governments met this challenge depended heavily on national circumstances. However, three general problems were plainly visible:
– attack social cohesion and the role of the Trade Unions;
-shrink the role of the state.
NOTE: European Trade Unions saw this as a race to the bottom.
2. The impact on the ‘Home’ populations of increasing migrations:
-as people from poorer economies moved to higher wage economies;
-this encouraged the appeal of Identity politics represented by the extreme right;
-migration and multiculturalism were viewed with deepening concern.
3. The threat of terrorism:
-following the Iraq war and the attacks on Madrid and London;
-becoming more threatening after Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and the emergence of ISIS.
From 2008 onwards a combination of events shook Europe:
-the worse financial and economic crisis since the 1930’s;
-amassive flow of refugees into Europe;
-an increasing number of terrorist attacks;
-Europe and Russia in disagreement over the Ukraine.
The response to the above was Austerity
Governments whatever their political colour adopted Austerity policies. To many people it appeared that governments had no control-power had left the individual state behind-anonymous financial institutions appeared to be in control. Enormous social costs were inflicted onto ordinary people. The costs of austerity were carried by the poorer sections of society. Public Services and the Welfare safety net were under attack. Images of political elites completely detached from ordinary people were common place. While democracy had not collapsed it was clearly under threat. (Note the Right’s propaganda of globalist elite versus the nationalist people took root).
No government attempted to explain globalisation – its Janus two faces – positive and negative. Integral to the process of globalisation is the transfer of populations from the poor to the rich countries that needed labour. No government explained the demographic problem of falling birth and deathrates. No one explained that the European migrant crisis was first and foremost a refugee crisis – people fleeing wars and persecution. There has been no moment of self-knowledge in Europe – Europe had exploited violence to other countries especially in the era of imperialism and today Europe has had its taste of how violence could strike back. What Europeans experience now is alarm, fear and ignorance. Historically familiar ideas of nationalist sentiments are propelling a climate of aggressive behaviour and racism reminiscent of fascism.
The Far Right Framework
Everywhere in Europe, right wing extremism works within a similar framework. The Four Pillars are Land, People, Society and Myth.
Land – Land or soil is an obsession of the Right e.g. the Nazi’s ‘blood and soil’ policies. For the extreme Right being rooted in the landscape, the region gave them a specific way of looking at the world. As opposed to rootless foreigners who were seen as cosmopolitan and contaminated.
People – The Right see people in terms of identity. These ideas are based on pseudo-scientific, racialist themes which divide people into a hierarchy of different peoples (the Nazi’s Aryan ideas). The Right’s greatest fear is the degeneration of the ‘people ‘ through mixed blood.
Society – The Right see society as a totalitarian project. Society is seen as an organism, analysed in medical terms either as health or diseased. It must not be contaminated by foreign blood.
Myth – The Right is obsessed with notions of decadence. Much influenced by Oswald Spengler’s book ‘Decline of the West’. They are opposed to democratic institutions and ideas of human rights and progress, but attracted to elements of ancient cultures and secret societies, e.g. the Thule Society. (All the leading Nazis were members of this society). A major fixation has always been with conspiracies – especially those supposedly involving the ‘other’ – foreigners, especially the Jew! One prime example of their fixation is ‘THE PROTOCOLS OF THE ELDERS OF ZION’; a so-called Jewish plot which has been totally discredited over many years. They also encourage the transcendence of the ordinary to the invincible (see the imagery used by the propagandists of Mussolini and Hitler).
How has the rise of the extreme Right grown in practice?
Below we outline the development of the extreme Right in five European countries, two of which have extreme right parties in government.
Germany:
Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) was funded in 2013 by a collection of right of centre academics and businessmen. Their concerns were the economic sovereignty of Germany, pro-Deutsche Bank and opposition to the European Central Bank and the Euro. Unsurprisingly they were very hostile to any Greek bail-out. Their policies fluctuated between neo-liberalism and national conservatism. Bernd Lucke, their founder, was an academic, with major funding provided by Hans Olaf Heinkel, a rich businessman and one time chairman of the BDI, (the German CBI). They were given a very easy time by the media and a boost from Angela Merkel’s refugee policy.
Subsequently the AfD moved to the right and the founding fathers were expelled. In the 2017 elections the AfD won 94 seats in the Bundestag, (the German parliament), on right wing, anti-immigrant, nationalist policies. This was the first time in over 60 years that an outright nationalist party had won seats in the German parliament.
The refugee crisis 2015 – 2016 and Angela Merkel’s policies were the seedbed of their success. In addition they profited from the racist, anti-immigrant protest movement of PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans AgainstIslamisation of the West), which in effect became the extra parliamentary arm of the AfD.
Note: Tommy Robinson formed a branch of PEGIDA in Newcastle, with limited success.
There has been a general mood of dissatisfaction with politics in Germany. Two recently published books caught this mood: Sarrazin’sGermany Abolishes Itself(2010); Pirincci’sGermany Demented(2014). The SPD’s (German Labour Party), attacks on labour laws and welfare provision when in government, and their role as coalition partners with the CDU/CSU (Conservative parties) left working people feeling unprotected. As a consequence of the Coalition Government the AfD are today the official Bundestag opposition, with the advantages this brings like extra funding and parliamentary time. The AfD has taken advantage of its official opposition status. They openly express climate denial policies and are using the battles over lignite (brown coal), especially in the east, to gain political advantage and increasingly express anti-Islamic, anti-immigrant policies on a national stage.
Internally in-fighting is rife in the AfD between the national conservative wing and the openly neo-Nazi wing. To their right the small NPD neo Nazi party is pushing its nationalist settler, communes policy in the old GDR. The AfD is a serious problem for German democracy today.
France:
France has a history of right-wing extremism e.g. the Dreyfus Case, 1894 – 1906. (He was a Jewish officer wrongly court-marshalled for spying). Anti-Semitism was a continuing sore on the body politic of France. In the 1930s extreme right-wing groups attempted physically to take over the French parliament (groups like Action-Francais and the army veterans’ Cross of Fire, were major participants). They failed, but many resurfaced after Hitler’s conquest of France, working with Petain or more directly collaborating with the Germans.
The National Front was founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972. He brought together Catholic traditionalist, nationalist groups, Petainists, Action Francais royalists, and skin-heads. Le Pen had learned much from his time in Algeria and had forgotten nothing. He is an authoritarian traditionalist, racist, anti-democratic, Holocaust denier and latterly violently anti-Islamist. He inhabited a far Right ghetto that prevented him from achieving his presidential goal.
One of his daughters, Marine Le Pen, took over the leadership of the party and expelled her father. She is focused on trying to detoxify her father’s brand and has renamed the party the ‘National Rally’. The Rally as with the Front, remains heavily influenced by the ideas of the clash of civilisations and the very French right wing idea of the ‘great displacement’, (Muslims replacing white French people). She has shifted the debate from race towards culture and ethnicity; ethnic differences are seen as a threat to national identity and values from cultures that do not sit well with French identity. Her anti-globalisation views include a vision of France united around blood-lines and heritage. She has failed to effectively move on from the traditional policies of the Right merely attempting to bring them up-to-date. She, along with the Freedom Party of Austria, Golden Dawn of Greece, AfD of Germany, VlaamsBelange of Belgium and Jobbik of Hungary are flirting with Putin’s Eurasian power block to oppose the United States and NATO. The National Rally is a major political force in France today despite their unpalatable ideas.
Spain:
The death of Franco in 1975 and the difficult but successful transition to democracy is a matter of justifiable pride in Spain. Inevitably compromises were made which left residual Francoism alive and well in Spain. Manuel Fraga, Franco’s Minister of Information and Tourism formed, legally, the Partido Popular, (the People’s Party). The PP was and is a right wing conservative party containing Francoist elements. Until recently it was the government in Spain but was facing increasing and varied problems. Two in particular led to its demise. They were Catalan independence and corruption.
In December 2018 a new party of the Right won 12 seats in the regional parliament of Andalucía. The party ‘Vox’ is nationalist, xenophobic, chauvinist and anti-Muslim. It’s the first time since Franco’s death that a party of the far Right has gained seats in parliament, albeit a regional parliament.
Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, speaks in violent terms of RECONQUESTA (a historical reference to the Catholic monarchs ridding Spain of Moors/Muslims). Thisreference was not lost on Spain’s right-wingers. Abascal has taken to riding horses, as a sort of latter day Charlton Heston in the film El Cid. As with many on the far Right he is much taken with the ideas of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ (a book written by the American Samuel Huntington). Vox has pulled the People’s Party rightward and is attempting to link with the centrist party, Ciuadaons and the PP in a right wing block. In rejecting dialogue with the Catalans and making relations with the Muslims in Spain more toxic Vox is set to make difficulties for Spanish democracy.
Italy:
After Mussolini residual elements of fascism survived in Italy, for example the MSI, (MovementoSocialeItaliani), and a small, officially unrecognised, TUC. The major player in Italian politics was the Christian Democratic Party, (CDP), with the advantages of the support of the Catholic Church. Two other parties played a significant role, they were the PCI, (the Italian Communist Party) and the Socialist Party. The demise of the Soviet Union greatly diminished the role of the PCI. The Socialist Party led by Bettino Craxi began working very closely with the Christian Democratic Party both in and out of government.
Their partnership ended in 1992 when massive corruption at every level of Italian society was exposed. A system of illegal funding became evident. ‘Kickbacks’ to the parties and individuals were commonplace. This was known in Italy as ‘TANGENTOPOLI’. Italian democracy was in meltdown and entering difficult times. Only in such dramatic circumstances was it possible for Berlusconi and his Forza Italia to become the government of Italy. It enabled Umberto Bossi to form the Northern League – a racist and regionalist party to enter the Berlusconi government.
The shifting sands of Italian politics continued to present politicians with major problems. Italy faced a mass migration influx combined with its inability to solve its economic problems, which in turn produced major political change. In recent elections the Northern League, now called ‘the League’, and the Five Star Movement, became the Italian government.
The Five Star Movement, the first internet party, fronted by comedian, Beppe Grillo, but controlled by the Cassaleggiofamily, (questionable democratic credentials!),became the major partner with the League to form the Italian government. While the Five Star Movement is politically ambiguous the League is openly nationalist, racist, authoritarian and especially anti- Muslim. Its leader, MattioSalvini is a vigorous exponent of all these ideas. He warned of an Islamic Caliphate to come and he is in the forefront of bringing the Right in Europe together around these ideas. The League and Salvini are a major force in Italy today and he cultivates to his right such organisations as Casa Pound (based on Ezra Pound’s ideas, an American poet who collaborated with Mussolini before and during the WW2), Forza Nuova and Brothers of Italy, all of which are openly fascist.
Hungary:
There has always been a kind of Magyar exceptionalism, perhaps a hangover from 1867 and the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy. Racism flourished with Magyar dominance of Croats, Serbs, Slovaks and Romanians, (see the recent racism at the Hungarian versus Slovakia football match). Admiral Horthy, the Hungarian dictator, who collaborated with Hitler, and his Arrow Cross movement, all indicate an extremist right wing footprint in Hungary’s recent past.
Today, FIDESZ, the party of Victor Orban, is the Hungarian government. FIDESZ, (alliance of young democrats), started out as a centrist party. Since 2010 Orban has governed Hungary in an increasingly authoritarian manner. He boasts that Hungary is ‘illiberal’ democracy.
Three issues demonstrate his move to the Right:
Orban continually flouts EU policies, and has been suspended from the Conservative group in the EuropeanParliament, but shows no appetite for leaving the group or the EU; although he is working more closely with Salvini in Italy and the right wing Polish government. To his right is a brutal party of the extreme right – Jobbik, its policies echo the fascist past with its anti-Semitism, anti-Roma and anti-Muslim policies. Orban will be a problem that the EU needs to solve.
Conclusion.
The acceptance of unfettered globalisation by parties of the centre-right and centre-left have enabled the extreme right to gain momentum. In particular, the acceptance of austerity policies by social- democratic parties in Europe left working people feeling un-protected and unwanted. However, the nationalist views of the extreme right cannot deal with the real issues facing the peoples of Europe.
The above can only be dealt with effectively by international cooperation and action. Labour and social democratic parties have to combat neo-liberal authoritarianism in the workplace and society. Ending Austerity and putting in place policies that meet the needs of the people. The European Union must end the subordination of the Social Europe, (social protection and equality), to the needs of global corporations and finance. The battle for Democracy, Solidarity and Social Justice is now entering a critical stage.
Basil ByeJune 2019
European Elections 2019 – An Analysis of the Results.
By Rob Martin
For the ERIS Meeting – 21st June 2019.
Basil Bye has given an excellent appraisal of the rise of the populist right in Europe during the last two decades and has indicated widespread fears that in the 2019 European Elections they would enjoy big gains across Europe.I want to consider first the results in the UK, nationally and then in the South East and South West regions, before moving on to look at the overall results in Europe and how these have affected the various groupings in the European Parliament. Finally, after a look at the results in the other 27 EU Member States I will summarise the current position of the populist right in Europe following these elections.
In all cases, in the UK, amongst the various groupings in the European Parliament and in the individual national results, we need to look behind the headlines and see what actually happened, not what the media and political pundits want us to believe. The picture is far from uniform and, although of concern, is not anywhere as depressing as predicted.
The UK “campaign” and results.
In the UK the 2019 voter turnoutwas up on the previous elections in 2014 to 36.9%,but this was still down on the EU average of 50.95%, even though interest here this year seemed to be muchhigher than usual, partly because of Brexit and also as many people saw the elections as a possible rehearsal for another Brexit referendum. Depressingly, just as in 2014, many thousands of EU citizens registered to vote in the UK were prevented from voting here, even though the EU had warned the UK Government that such restrictions were illegal.
There were no campaigns from either the Conservatives or Labour parties; the former had no press conferences, no manifesto and ignored the election as best it could. The most honest course for it would have been to not put up candidates at all in an election it did not want and tried very hard to prevent occurring. Labour made out it was campaigning but did so with a paucity of poor literature and with the leadership virtually ignoring the election, concentrating its resources instead on the Peterborough by-election, held at the beginning of June. The other Remain parties – the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, Change UK and the Nationalists in Wales and Scotland, really fought campaigns as if these elections were indeed a re-run of the 2016 referendum or a dummy run for another one, the People’s Vote they are all pressing for to reverse the 2016 result.
Consequently, the newly formed Brexit Party of Nigel Farage virtually had a free run to push its populist agenda, restricted to arguing the failure so far to deliver Brexit was a betrayal of democracy and could only be forgiven if the UK left the EU in October 2019 without a deal. Hardly confronted by the other parties and given a soft ride by a largely compliant media and press the Brexit Party was forecast throughout the lead up to Election Day on 23rdMay to be the eventual runaway winner.
It did top the poll and certainly performed well, especially for such a new party, but its 31.6% share of the vote was only 5% above that of UKIP in 2014. Although it took all but 3.3% of UKIP’s vote it only added another 8.3% of voters, much less than levels predicted during the campaign. Most of these were clearly disaffected Conservatives and it could not have taken many votes from Labour anywhere in the country. Had it had done so it would have polled much higher.
As we predicted in our ERIS discussions before these elections, Labour’s vote plummeted as its supporters flocked to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and less so to Change UK in England, and mainly to the SNP and Plaid Cymru in Scotland and Wales.
The overall national resultsaw the Brexit Party win 31.6% and twenty nine seats, up twenty nine on 2014, when, of course, it did not exist. Second were the Liberal Democrats on 20.3%, up 13.4%, with sixteen seats, an increase of fifteen. Labour came a very poor third on 14.1%, down 11.3%, taking ten seats, a decline of ten. The Greens polled 12.1%, an increase of 4.2%, winning seven seats against four in 2014, its best ever performance in a national election in the UK. The Conservatives suffered a disaster on 9.1%, down 14.8%, losing fifteen seats and retaining only four, its worst performance in a national election for over a century! The Scottish National Party won three seats, up one on 2014, with 3.6%, a rise of 1.1%. The new pro-European party of Labour and Conservative defectors, Change UK, got 3.4% and no seats, whilst UKIP lost all of the twenty two seats it won before and polled just 3.3%, down 24.2%. Plaid Cymru took 1%, up 0.3% and gained its only seat. In Northern Ireland, using the single transferable vote method of proportional representation, the Democratic Unionist and Sinn Fein parties each held one seat and the third one was gained by the centrist Alliance party at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party.
In the nine English regions, Wales and Scotland, under the d’Hont system of proportional representation, the Brexit Party was slightly over represented as its 31.6% share of the vote gave it virtually 40% of the seats, in contrast to the Greens who on 12.1% got only 9.6% of the seats. However, except in Scotland, where it came second to the SNP, the Brexit Party did come top in Wales and every one of the English regions except London, where the Liberal Democrats unexpectedly won. Everywhere that Labour’s vote collapsed most, in its heartlands in the English regions the Liberals and Greens prospered, whilst in Wales and in Scotland Labour’s vote fell away to the nationalists. It is clear its defecting voters went to Remain parties rather than to Leave ones and in those regions strongly for Brexit in the 2016 referendum at this election Remain parties did particularly well. The Brexit Party may have topped the poll virtually everywhere but this was because it took most of the Leave vote, mainly at the expense of UKIP and the Conservatives.
Looking at the results in the context of a re-run of the 2016 referendum or as a trial run for a People’s Vote, it is obvious that everywhere Remain parties outperformed Leave parties. The national vote for UKIP and the Brexit Party amounted to 34.9%, whereas the combined total for the Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change UK, SNP and Plaid Cymru was 40.45%. Pollsters estimate that Labour voters who stayed loyal to their party in the European election split 60%-40% Remain-Leave and the equivalent figure for the Conservatives was 20%-80% Remain-Leave. If the total votes for these parties are distributed on this basis more peoplestill voted Remain than Leave.In the two regions that ERIS straddles, the South East and the South West, this pattern was largelyreflected.
In the South Eastthe Brexit Party came top easily, unfortunately with Nigel Farage heading its candidate list. It polled 915,686 votes, taking four of the region’s ten seats with 36.1%. The Liberal Democrats came second with 653,743 votes, an increase of465,867, taking three seats, two more than in 2014, with 25.8%, up 17.8%. The Greens came third with 343,249 votes, an increase of 131,543, taking one seat, as in 2014 with 13.5%, up 4.4%.The Conservatives came fourth with
260,277 votes, a decrease of 463,295, taking one seat, two less than 2014,with 10.3%, down 20.7%! Labour came fifth with 184,678 votes, adecrease of 158,097, taking one seat as in 2014 with 7.3%, down 7.4%. Change UK came sixth with 105,832 votes, winning no seats with 4.2%. UKIP came seventh with 56,487 votes, a decrease of 694,952, losing all four of the seats it won in 2014 with 2.2%, down 29.9%!
In the south westthe Brexit Party also came top easily with AnnWiddecombe unfortunately heading its candidate list. It polled 611,742 votes, taking three of the region’s eightseats with36.7%. The Liberal Democrats were second with 385,095 votes, an increase of 224,719, taking two seats as against none in 2014, with 23.1%, up 12.4%. The Greens came third with 302,364 votes, an increase of 135,917, taking one seat as in 2014 with 18.1%, up 7%. The Conservatives came fourth with 144,674 votes, a decrease of 288,477, losing both of their seats with 8.7%, down 20.2%! Labour came fifth with 108,100 votes, a decrease of 98,024, losing its single seat previously held by Claire Moody with 6.5%, down 7.3%. UKIP came sixth with 53,739 votes, a decrease of 430,445, losing both its seats with 3.2%, down 29.1%! Change UK came seventh with 46,612, winning no seats with 2.81%
The UK resultsclearly show a country deeply divided between, on the one side, Brexit backing Leavers who support the UK exiting the EU soon and without a deal, the only policy of Farage’s party, and on the other side Remainers supporting a group of parties all committed to another referendum. In the middle are the Conservatives and Labour, both currently offering a softer Brexit that the electorate rejects.Those parties that favour a hard Brexit, Farage’s and the DUP, now have thirty MEPs and those parties that oppose Brexit, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein and Alliance have twenty nine seats. (Conservatives and Labour have four and ten respectively). Had the pro Remain parties not been competing for the same votes or Change UK had not challenged sitting Green and Liberal Democrat MEPs then in some regions both those parties would have won additional seats at the expense of the Brexit, Conservative and Labour parties, which would have tilted the balance of representation further towards Remain.
The true picture of the UK resultsis that the Brexit Party did well at the expense of UKIP and the Conservatives, that the Liberal Democrats and Greens did much better than expected mainly at Labour’s expense and that the nation demonstrated a move towards rejecting the 2016 referendum result and showing there is no appetite amongst the majority of voters to leave the EU with any sort of Brexit.
The Results in Europe and the new EU Parliamentary Groupings.
Looking at the results across Europe and how they affect the various political groupings in the European Parliamentit is important to note that before the elections predictions were that the populist right, though it would not take control, would make sweeping gains, mainly at the expense of the two main centre blocks. The centre right and the centre left did indeed lose seats badly but not in the way expected, as the Liberals and Greens did surprisingly well across much of Europe, just as they did here. So, there was a boost for the populist right but nothing like the radical shift that was predicted.
The new Parliamentary Groupingsare made up as follows. (These figures are approximate as some parties have moved between groups since the last elections and some may do as the new parliament assembles):
European People’s Party, the mainstream centre right group, including the Spanish People’s Party and the German CDU of Angela Merkel, 180 seats, (down 41);
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, centre left grouping of social democrats, including the UK Labour Party, French Socialists, German SPD, Spanish Socialists, 146 seats, (down 45);
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, (ALDE), including the UK Liberal Democrats, Macron’s En Marche from France, 109 seats, (up 42);
Greens, European Free Alliance, including UK Greens and others from across Europe and nationalist and regional parties like the SNP and Plaid Cymru, 69 seats, (up 19);
European Conservatives and Reformists, anti-Federalists, including the UK Conservative Party, Poland’s ruling PiS, the Law and Justice Party, 59 seats, (down 11);
Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, Eurosceptic Populist, including UK Brexit Party, Italy’s 5 Star Movement and Germany’s AfD, 59 seats, (up 11);
Europe of Nations and Freedom, far right, including Le Pen’s National Rally from France and Salvini’s League from Italy, 58 seats, (no change);
European United Left/Nordic Green Left, far left socialist and communist grouping, including Germany’s De Linke and Sinn Fein, 39 seats, (down 13);
Non attachedMEPsor new and unaffiliated, 32 seats.
What actually happened was although populists topped the poll in the UK, (Farage’s Brexit Party), in Italy, (Salvini’s League), France, ( Le Pen’s National Rally) and Hungary,( Orban’sFidesz), they performed badly in many countries, including Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Denmark. In 23 of the EU’s 28 Member States the election was won by a pro-EU party. Populists of the right only increased their number of seats by 6overall in the 751 seat chamber. Unexpected
gains were made by the Liberals and Greens, who increased their combined total of representatives by 61, so they had the actual success story of the elections, not the populist right, as previously predicted. As much as we in ERIS would have wanted the Socialist Group to do better we must be grateful that with the decline of the two centre blocks in the parliament the Liberals and Greens now hold the balance of power rather, than the far right, as may have occurred.
The results across Europe, by country:
Austria.(Turnout 59.8%).
The centre right Austrian People’s Party, (OVP), led by Sebastian Kurz, were clear winners as it increased its vote by about 8%, to just under 35%, taking twoextra seats and seven in total. However, within days Kurz was forced to resign as Chancellor after a vote of no confidence was
carried over his handling of the so-called Ibiza scandal, which erupted the week before the elections and concerned secretly taped footage of Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the far right Freedom Party, (FPO), and vice-chancellor in the OVP-FPO coalition government, attempting to trade public contracts for campaign support from a woman believed to be a wealthy Russian. Whilst Strache resigned and the coalition collapsed the furore only slightly affected his party’s election
performance, as it held its three seats and saw its vote fall by just 2%.The opposition Social Democrats, (SPO), came second with 23.4%, retaining its five seats on a slightly reduced vote. The Greens came fourth with 14%, tripling their vote compared to the 2017 general election but losing one of their three seats. The Liberals held on to their only seat.
Belgium.(Turnout 88.47%).
On a day when the country held regional, federal and European elections concurrently, the far right VlaamsBelang (Flemish Interest) increased its vote in Flanders by 12.6%, finishing second in the region with 18.5%. It held its three European seats. The win for the anti-immigration, separatist party in Flanders stood in stark contrast to the Greens winning in Brussels by a margin of 6% and 7.5% in the southern part of the country. The Greens increased their MEPs from two to three. The far left Workers’ Party had a breakthrough across the country, gaining one MEP. These victoriescame at the cost of the parties that governed, with outgoing Prime Minister Charles Michel, whose own Reformist Movement finished second in the southern Wallonia Region, having dropped around 5% of the vote there and in Brussels. The right wing conservative New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), remainedthe largest party in Belgium with about 25% of the vote but this was down 7%.
Bulgaria.(Turnout 32.64%).
Prime Minister BoykoBorisov’s GERB party won the election comfortably with 31% of the vote, against the main opposition Social Democrats, who won 24%. GERB retained all seven of its seats, whilst the Social Democrats increasedits MEPs by one, to five in total. The Liberals lost a seat and now have three and the Conservatives remain on two.
Croatia.(Turnout 29.86%).
There was a tight race between the ruling centre right Croatian Democratic Union, (HDZ), who won four seats, (down one), with 22.7% of the vote, and their centre left Social Democrat, (SDP), rivals, who polled 18.7% and won three seats, (up one).The SDP gain another seat when the UK exits the EU. Four smaller parties won one seat each.
Cyprus.(Turnout 44.99%).
The ruling centre right Democratic Rally scored a narrow win over the leftist opposition Progressive Party of Working People, (AKEL), winning 29.2% to 27.9%. Both retained their two MEPs. The centre left Democratic Party and the Socialist EDEK both won one seat each.
Czech Republic. (Turnout 28.72%).
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis’ ANO movement easily won the poll with 21.18% of the vote, increasing its MEPs from four to six, but there was a 5.5% fall in its vote from the 2017 general election. In addition, Babis’ coalition partner in his minority government, the Social Democrats, won only 3.95%, a result that would ultimately doom the coalition. In contrast, the two main opposition
parties, the centre right Civic Democrats (ODS) and the staunchly pro-EU Czech Pirate Party, polled well. ODS increased itsvote from 7.7% to 14.54%and doubled its seats to four, whilst the Pirate Party trebled its vote to 13.95% and went from no seats to three. The pro-EU Stan-Top 09 coalition saw its vote decline by 4.3% to 11.65% and lost one of its three seats. The KSCM Party (Communists), lost 4% of its vote, down to 6.9% and with it two of its three MEPs. The turnout in the Czech Republic was up considerably from the 18.2% in2014 .
Denmark.(Turnout 66%).
Here the big shock was the collapse in support for the far right Danish People’s Party, (DPP), which lost more than half its votes and three of its four seats. Prime Minister Lokke Rasmussen’s Venstre (Liberal) Party did better than expected and gained two MEPs, finishing first ahead of the Social Democrats, who underperformed in retaining their three seats. However, at the general election held on 5thJune fortunes were reversed for the major parties with the Social Democrats winning power. The Social Democrats then won almost 26% of the vote and with other allies in their left wing block took 93 seats in the 179 seat parliament. The outgoing governing coalition saw its seats reduced to 76 and the far right DPP vote plummeted from a previous 21.1% to only 8.7%. However, this reversal of its fortunes, occurred partly as a result of the Social Democrats, led by Mette Frederiksen, stealing many of the DPP’s hard-line immigration policies.
Estonia. (Turnout 37.6%).
The (liberal) Reform Party topped the poll with 26.2% of the vote, slightly up on 2014 and retained its two seats. The Social Democratic Party doubled its seats to two after increasing its vote by almost 10% to 23.3%. In the general election it came in fourth and the far right EKRE had joined the ruling coalition. In the European election the EKRE fared badly against its general election result but still improved on its 2014 showing, trebling its vote to 12.7% and taking one seat in a performance that was still well below expectations. The Centre Party of Prime Minister JuriRatas came third with 22.4% and won one seat, as last time.
Finland.(Turnout 40.7%).
The Greens had a good election, coming in second with 16%, (up 6.7%), and took two seats. The main opposition conservative National Coalitiontopped the poll with 20.8%, slightly down on 2014, retaining three seats. The Social Democrats, who won the general election in April, did disappointingly on 14.6%, up 2.3% on its 2014 resultas it retained its two seats. The populist Finns Party only increased its vote by 1% to 13.8% and retained its two seats, a performance worse than expected.
France. (Turnout 50.12%)
President Emmanuel Macron set out to beat the far right National Rally of Marine le Pen and win a popular mandate for his pro-EU reforms. Instead, the National Rally was in first place with 23.31% and twenty two seats whilst Macron’s En Marche won 22.41 % and twenty one seats, up twenty one as the new party did not exist in 2014. (After Brexit both parties will have twenty three seats).
Le Pen’s party, however, performed less well than in 2014 and lost one seat, so overall the result was disappointing for the right in France. The centre right Republicans got only 8.48% and lost 12 of its seats, ending up with just six. The Socialists also did badly, losing nine of their thirteen seats. Jean-Luc Melanchon’s La France Insoumise polled 6.3%, just ahead of the Socialist Party and their allies, who got 6.19%, barely above the 5% threshold to win any seats.The best improved performance was from the Greens, increasing their MEPs by six to twelve and getting 13.47%, up from 8.95% in 2014.
Germany.(Turnout 61.38%).
Turnout was up 13.4% on 2014 and, as expected, the CDU/CSU centre right grouping came top of the poll with 28.9% and twenty nine seats, down five. The surprise second place winners were the Greens, who polled 20.05% andwon an extra ten seats, to return twenty one MEPs. This was considered a spectacular result, with the centre left SPD reduced to 15.8% and just sixteen seats, after losing eleven. (The SPD leader Katerina Barley then resigned). Whilst the far right AfD increased its vote to 11% and got four extra seats after winning eleven in 2014, its performance in this election fell well short of its result in the 2017 general election. However, in the states of Saxony and Brandenburg AfD beat the CDU into second place, whilst in Thuringia it was only 2% behind the CDU. In state elections in Bremen, held concurrently with the EU poll, the SPD lost power to the CDU for the first time in seventy three years as its vote declined by 7.9% to 24.9% in this, its former stronghold.
Greece.(Turnout 58.71 %).
The European elections were held in tandem with local and regional elections in Greece. They all resulted in bad news for the ruling, left wing Syriza Party, (Coalition of the Radical Left), and led to the Prime Minister Alex Tsipras calling a general election for 7thJuly. The centre right New Democracy Party won 33.11% in the European elections, up 10.4%, increasing its five seats to eight. Syriza polled 23.78%, down 2.8%, though it retained all of its six seats. The far right Golden Dawn lost half of its support and one of its three MEPs, ending up with just 4.88%.
Hungary.(Turnout 43.36%).
As expected the ruling Fidesz Party won the election with 52.26%, an increase of 1.08%. It took 13 seats, one more than in 2014. Currently suspended from the centre right European People’s Party in the European Parliament for its increasing populist approach, Fidesz’s future in Brussels is unclear. Speaking to supporters after the results were declared, its leader Victor Orban said he has got a mandate from Hungarian voters to do three things: stop immigration in Europe, defend the Europe of nations and defend Europe’s Christian culture. “We will work together with anyone who wants to stop immigration”, he said. The main surprise was a big shift in the make-up of the Hungarian opposition. The Democratic Coalition, a party that currently belongs to the Progressive Alliance of
Socialists and Democrats but could gravitate towards the liberal group, won 16.05%, up 6.3%, and took four seats. At the same time, Momentum, a member of ALDE, the liberal grouping, won its first ever two seats with 9.93%. The Socialists lost 11.54% of its vote and are down to 6.61% with one seat. The far right Jobbik lost 8.84% of its support, got only 6.34% and lost one of its two MEPs.
Ireland.(Turnout 49.7%).
Prime Minister Leo Veradker’s centre right Fine Gael won 29.6%, up 7.3% and took four seats, as in 2014. The main opposition party Fianna Fail, also centre right, won 16.6%, down 5.7%, and took one seat. Both parties will gain another MEP after the Brexit redistribution of UK seats. The Greens did much better than expected. They won 11.4%, up 6.5% and took two seats. They won none in 2014.Sinn Fein did badly, losing 7.8% of its vote and polling 11.7%. it won one MEP. Independents 4Change, a new party who are non-aligned in the European Parliament, took 7.4% and won two seats.
Italy. (Turnout 54.48%).
Results in Italy drove a wedge between the ruling coalition parties, the League and the 5Star Movement. The League was the undisputed winner and had a spectacular, if well predicted, result. It took 34.26%, up 28.12% and won twenty eight seats, an increase of twenty three. The 5Star Movement took 17.06%, a fall of 4.11%, and won fourteen sets, three fewer than in 2014. The centre left Democratic Party polled 22.74%, down 18.03% and won nineteen seats, down twelve. Silvio Burlusconi was elected as an MEP for his Forza Italy party but its vote of 8.78% was 8.04% down on 2014. Then it won thirteen MEPs and now it has only six.
Latvia.(Turnout 33.53%).
New Unity, centre right party of government, won 26.24%, down 19.95%, losing two of its four seats. Centre left party Harmony polled 17.45%, up 4.41%, and doubled its MEPs to two. The Centre right National Alliance won 16.4%, an increase of 2.15% and also doubled its seats to two. The new liberal Development/For! Party got 12.6% and one MEP, whilst the far left Latvian Russian Union polled only 6.24%, down just 0.14% and retained its only seat.
Lithuania.(Turnout 52.48%).
The centre right opposition Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats took 19.74%, up 1.14%, and won three seats, an increase of one. The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania retained its two
seats, with 15.88%, up 0.81%. The governing Lithuanian Farmers and Green Union,took 12.56%, up from 11.92%, and retained its two MEPs.
Luxembourg.(Turnout 84.24%).
The liberal ruling Democratic Party gained a seat and doubled its MEPs to two with a vote of 21.44%, up 6.6%. The centre right Christian Social People’s Party, (of European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker), lost one of its two seats as its vote declined by 16.6% to 21.1%. In a high turnout of
Luxembourg’s 590,000 voters the Greens won one seat with 18.91% and the far left Socialist Workers’ Party one seatwith12.19%.
Malta.(Turnout 72.7%).
The centre left Labour Party won 54.29%, up 0.9%, and in gaining one seat took four of the country’s six. The opposition centre right Nationalist Party got 37.9%, down 2.12%, and took two seats, down one. This victory for the Labour Party, though expected, was by a far greater majority than forecast and was historic in proportions. The far right Imperium Europa party polled 3.17%, afractional increase on 2014 and it did far less well than predicted.
Netherlands.(Turnout 41.93%).
The Labour Party doubled its seat tally to six after taking 19.01%, up 9.61%. This was a spectacular result following the party’s dreadful result in the last Dutch general election, when its vote and Parliamentary representation collapsed.Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal VVD party came second with 14.64%, up 2.62%, gaining a seat to give it four MEPs.The Christian Democrats, previously the biggest Dutch party in the European Parliament, lost one of its four seats as its vote declined by 3% to 12.18%. The left wing Green Links increased its vote by 3.92% to 10.9%, adding another seat to the two it already had, whilst the liberal Democrats 66 lost two of its four MEPs as its vote declined from 15.48% to 7.1%. On the far right the new Forum for Democracy, expected to become the election’s big winner after coming in first in provincial elections in March, ended up with three seats and 10.96%. This was at the expense of the other far right organisation, Gert Wilders’ Freedom Party. Its vote fell by 9.79% and it lost all four of its MEPs, including Wilders!! It was even out polled by the Party for the Animals and a party for senior citizens, 50Plus, both of which won a seat!!
Poland.(Turnout 45.68%).
The ruling Law and Justice Party, (PiS), won handsomely with 45.38%, up 13.6%, taking twenty seven seats, an increase of eight on 2014. The European Coalition, a grouping of five opposition parties from across the political spectrum, including the Civic Platform (of the President of the EU Council of Ministers Donald Tusk) , got 38.47%, a fall of 10.21%. The Coalition won twenty two seats, down six.Far behind was the new social democratic and pro-EuropeanSpring (Wiosna) Party with 6.04%. Confederation, (Konfederacja), a coalition of far right parties, failed to pass the 5% threshold, so did not win any seats. The libertarian, Eurosceptic and socially conservative Congress of the New Right, (KNP), polled only 0.06%, down 7.1%.
Portugal.(Turnout 30.75).
The governing Socialists scored a clear victory with 33.4%, up 1.95%, giving them nine seats, up one. This was a boost for Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is facing re-election in October. In second place the opposition centre right Social Democratic Party got 21.9%, and retained its six MEPs. Its conservative ally, the CDS-People’s Party, scored a disappointing 6.2%, and held its one seat. On the far left the Portuguese Communist Partyfinished on 6.9%, down 5.8% and lost one of its three seats. It was out performed by the Left Bloc which won 9.8%, up 5.3% and the winner of a second MEP to its ranks. The Greens had a success when the People-Animals-Nature Party took 5.8% and its first
ever seat. Neither of the two far right parties got any support, with the most successful, Basta, getting less than 1.5%
Romania.(Turnout 51.07%).
The ruling Social Democratic PSD came in second place with 22.51%, down 15.1%, and won nine seats, down one. The conservative National Liberal Party won the election with 27%, down 2.8%. It took ten seats, an increase of two. The biggest upset, however, came from USR Plus, an anti-corruption alliance led by former Prime Minister and European Commissioner DacianCiolos, which won 22.36%. It will join the liberal ALDE bloc along with Macron’s En Marche in a centrist alliance. Also, a new social democratic organisation, the Pro Romania Party, led by former Prime Minister Victor Ponta won two seats with 6.61%. The PSD’s position in the European Parliament is unclear as the Party of European Socialists announced in April that it was freezing relations with the PSD over concerns about the rule of law in Romania. Since then it has moved further to Euroscepticism and Victor Ponta, who was expelled from it in 2017 said the PSD “unfortunately has turned out to be a very populist, very nationalistic, demagogic party”.
Slovakia.(Turnout 22.74%).
Progressive Slovakia-SPOLU, a new pro-EU coalition, scored a stunning victory, with 20.11% and winning four seats, two which will be in the ALDE liberal grouping and two in the EPP centre right grouping.The ruling SMER-SD (Social Democratic Party) of former Prime Minister Robert Fico came second with 15.72%, 8.37% down on 2014,holding three seats, down one. The far right L’SNS, People’s Party- Our Slovakia polled 12.07%, up 11% and gained two seats. The elections represent another chapter in Slovakia turbulent political landscape following the murders of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kusnirova, last year. Early in 2019 the political novice Zuzana Caputova, former vice chair of Progressive Slovakia, was elected the country’s first female president.
Slovenia.(Turnout 28.89).
The centre right Slovenian Democratic Party and The Slovenian People’s Party won 26.43%, up 1.6% and took three sets, down one on 2014. The centre left Social Democrats polled 18.64%, up 9.56% and doubled its sets to two. The new liberal List of MarjnSerac got 15.58% and to seats, whilst the New Slovenia Party polled 11.07%, down 5.53%, and won one seat, down one. The far right Patriotic League managed only 1.71%.
Spain.(Turnout 60.73%).
Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez strengthened his hand after the recent general election by coming out on top in triple European, regional and local elections. In the European poll his PSOE party won 32.8%, up 9.8% on 2014, with twenty seats, up six. The opposition, centre right People’s Party was down by 6% to 20.1%, losing four of the sixteen seats it won five years ago. This was its worst ever result in a European election.Ciudadanos, (Citizens), centre right but part of the ALDE grouping, which had integrated UPyD, (the Union, Progress and Democracy party, strictly pro-European and anti-nationalist and anti-separatist), into its lists ahead of the election, came third
with 12.17%, up 2.5%, winning one extra seat and taking its total to seven.UnidasPodemoscambiar Europa, the alliance of Podemos and the United Left suffered a considerable drop in its vote, being
reduced to 10.1%, down 8%, winning only six seats, five less than in 2014. Encouraging was the poor performance of the far right Vox, which defied expectations of success and received only 6.2%, up 4.2% on 2014 but down from the 10% it won in the April general election. It took three seats. In the regional elections the PSOE won in ten of the twelve autonomous regions. However, in Madrid a coalition of the People’s Party, Ciudadanos and Vox removed the Socialists from control.
Sweden.(Turnout 55.27%)
Support for the Social Democrats slightly dropped compared with 2014 but the party still came top with 23.4%, down 0.79%, and retained its five sets. The centre right Moderate Party came second with 16.8%, up 3.25% and increased its representation by one seat to four. The far right Sweden Democrats came third, taking three seats, an increase of one, as its vote rose by 5.63% to 15.3%. The Green Party lost 3.91% of its vote, down to 11.5%, and two of its four MEPs. Both the liberal Centre Party and the centre right Christian Democrats gained a seat and doubled their representation, respectively increasing their vote by 4.31% to 10.8% and by 2.67% to 8.6%. The Left Party’s vote was virtually unchanged on 6.8% and it retained its one seat. However, the centre left Feminist Initiative saw its vote collapse from 5.49% to 0.8% and it lost its sole seat. The Liberal People’s Party lost 5.81% of its 2014 tally and took only 4.1%, halving its representation to one seat.
Conclusion.
Rather than there being a great leap forward for the populists in the 2019 European elections what actually happened was far more nuanced. In some countries, such as Italy and Hungry, as expected, they did perform well but in others the predicted breakthrough or expected resurgence didn’t occur. Indeed, in some countries the populists fell back in support, as inDenmark. Unexpectedly, in a
few countries the centre left were successful, against predictions, as in Spain and the Netherlands. In others, such as the UK, liberal parties did well, or the Greens did much better than expected, as in Germany. So, overall 2019 should be seen as a consolidation of the populists’ position in Europe but no more than that, and an achievement below their expectations and ambitions. Instead of populists holding the balance of power in the Parliament with the decline of the centre left and centre right it is the liberal ALDE grouping and the Greens who look as if they are the unexpected kingmakers.
Since 1999 populists from the left and especially the right have increased their representation in the European Parliament from around 9% of the seats to just about 25%, but the biggest increase was between 2009 and 2015; the rate of increase has now fallen back. This seems to have occurred because where the left and other progressive parties have confronted populism it has been dented, its forward march slowed down and in some countries,it has even been pushed into reverse.
That is the lesson from these elections, both here in the UK and across Europe.