Rob Martin – ERIS
What next week’s elections mean to Europe and the UK.
The elections about to take place across Europe are being held in the UK by accident, only because we have not left the EU on the timescale set by this shambolic Government, and as a result of EU laws requiring all nation states to elect MEPs to the new Parliament that begins its session at the start of July. John Merritt is going to look at the various Left manifestos that are calling for a new direction in the EU based on socialist perspectives, so he will speak about Labour’s manifesto in these elections. What I will do first is to concentrate on the details and mechanics of the elections, then touch upon the campaigning, or lack of it here, with my views on the possible long term political implications for the UK if the results go as expected.
Voting will take place across Europe between 23rdand 26thMay for the election of 751 MEPs to represent 512 million people in 28 Member States. After India it is the largest democratic exercise in the world. These are also certainly the most important EU elections ever, in the UK and across the other 27 States. The very soul of the European project is at stake with Right wing populist parties, such as the Brexit Party here, likely to increase their support across much of Europe, seeking to obstruct the workings of the EU and undermine internationalism with naked nationalism and division, often based on racism and attacks on minorities and the disadvantaged.
We intend to devote our next ERIS meeting on 15thJune to analyse the European Election results and examine the appeal of populist parties across the Continent. Today I want to remind you what I said a month ago in discussing the then situation regarding Brexit, when it had become a virtual certainty that as the UK would still be in the EU until at least October this yearwe would have to hold EU elections on 23rdMay, much to the regret and embarrassment of Theresa May and the Conservative Party.
I said these elections were a great opportunity for Remainers in the country, and especially the Labour Party, to do what we had failed to do prior to and during the 2016 referendum campaign, and that is to make a positive case for membership of the EU. Since the referendum Remainers have been successful in arguing that Brexit is bad for the UK but have not been good at explaining why EU membership is better. This is our chance to sell the notion that the deal we have with Europe as a Member State is better than May’s deal, anyother that could be negotiated or a no deal, hard Brexit. Unfortunately the last month has seen us waste that chance, probably with extremely serious consequences for the countryand the Left.
The role of the European Parliament.
It is a myth to say the European Parliament is toothless, as Euro-sceptics constantly allege. In its early years it was, with MEPs originally nominated by their country rather than being directly elected. From June 1979 direct elections have occurred, now always by using whichever form of proportional representation each individual nation itself chooses, with the five yearly elections taking place simultaneously across the EU over a period of days.Since the Lisbon Treaty of 2009 the Parliament’s powers have also been increased substantially.
Parliament has the power to legislate, which is shared with the Council of the European Union. In most situations European laws are made by a co-decision procedure with the Council and Parliament jointly adopting law. Parliament can make amendments to legislation under this process but there are certain important areas, such as tax legislation, where Parliament may only give an opinion as to whether a proposed piece of legislation can become law or not.
Parliament has the power of the purse, which it also shares with the European Council. Parliament supervises spending by the EU and also adopts the EU’s annual budget.It has the last word on spending on the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund, cultural and educational programmes, humanitarian aid and refugee programmes. However, when it comes to spending on agriculture and spending arising from international agreements Parliament can propose modifications but the Council has the final say.
Parliament has the power of democratic supervision. It supervises all Community activities, sets up Committees of Inquiry to investigate certain matters and also has an important role in supervising the European Commission. The President of the Commission, currently Jean-Claude Juncker, is directly elected by Parliament from nominations made by the political groups. Individual Member States nominate Commissioners but these are now confirmed by Parliament under a vetting procedure. The Commission must submit reports to Parliament on its various activities and must answer written or oral questions during Question Time, not unlike similar proceedings in the UK Parliament, where Departments and Ministers are scrutinised. If two thirds of the EU Parliament vote to censure the Commission the entire Commission is forced to resign.
Parliament also has powers where enlargement of the EU is concerned. It monitors negotiations between the EU and countries that wish to join the EU. At the end of the negotiating process Parliament has to ratify approval of the new Member State and if it refuses there is no appeal mechanism. As you will be aware the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is also subject to unanimous agreement of all Member States and Parliament too.
Guy Verhofstadt MEP has led for the Parliament in Brexit negotiations and has been a key player on behalf of the EU, albeit secondary to the President of the Council of Ministers, (Donald Tusk), the President of the Commission, (Juncker) and the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator, (Michel Barnier).
The EU Parliament is therefore powerful and the Left needs either to control it or to have a major say in its proceedings as it has in recent years, even though it has been in a minority.
Remember what we achieved when the Left had a majority in the Parliament up to 1999, especially with the close working relationship that existed between the European and British TUCs, UK unions like GMB, with its European Officer Kathleen Walker Shaw coordinating lobbying of the Parliamentary Socialist Group and others. These efforts delivered equal treatment for part time workers; minimum maternity and paternity rights across Europe; the Working Time Directive, giving 4 weeks paid holidays initially, rest breaks and restricting the working week to 48 hours; the Consultation Directive on redundancies; the Acquired Rights Directive, the founding stone of the UK’s TUPE legislation; numerous health and safety laws, including the “6 Pack”; environmental and consumer protections; equalities legislation, anti-discrimination and human rights laws; the Charter of Fundamental Rights. All of these achievements are now at risk if Europe changes direction radically after the forthcoming elections and it could be impossible to build upon the foundations that have been laid over many years if the populist wreckers undermine what is left of the social Europe created during the last fifty years.
The 2014 European Elections Parliamentary outcome.
The results of the 2014 elections saw the following distribution of seats by the broad groupings which national parties make in alliances in the European Parliament with those who are like minded or have broadly similar policies: European People’s Party, (Centre Right, includes the German CDU, Spanish People’s Party ), 170 seats, down from 221; Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, (Centre Left, includes German SPD, French Socialists and our own Labour Party ), 144 seats, down from 191; Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, (includes our Liberal Democrats), 104 seats, up 37; European Alliance of Peoples and Nations, (populist, includesSalvini’s Italian League, Le Pen’s French National Rally), 71 seats, up 34; European Conservatives and Reformists, (includes our own Conservatives), 62 seats, down8; Greens/European Free Alliance, (includes our own Greens), 56 seats, up 6; European United Left/Nordic Green Left, (includes Sinn Fein), 50 seats, down 2; 5 Star Movement and Brexit Group, (formally known as EFDD), 50 seats, up 2; new parties or non-affiliated, 44 seats, up 29.(When the UK finally departs the EU the total number of seats in the Parliament will be reduced to 705 and 27 of our current 73 seats will be distributedto other nations, (Spain and France 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands 3 each, Ireland 2 and one each to Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Croatia Sweden, Romania, Slovakia, Austria and Poland. This is to rebalance national representation to reflect population size).
2014 European Election results in the UK.
As with every European election that has been fought in this country and like virtually every local election we have, the 2014 European election was fought as a national contest, judging the party in power. It was a verdict by the electorate on the performance of the Government running the country and the Opposition in opposing them, rather than on issues related to the EU. The result reflected the electorate‘s dissatisfaction with the austerity fixated Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition Government of David Cameron and Labour’s partial rehabilitation with the electorate following the decisive rejection of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister in 2010. Other than UKIP, then led by Nigel Farage, who pushed their populist message of strident Euroscepticism, no parties addressed European issues or attempted to promote the European ideal to the electorate.
On a turnout of 35.6% nationally, compared to 43% across the rest of the EU, UKIP topped the poll with 4,376,635 votes, winning 24 seats with 26.6% of the total votes cast. This was an increase of 11% on their vote in 2009. Labour came second with 4,020,635 votes, taking 20 seats and increasing their vote by 9.2% on the previous election. The Conservatives got 3,792,549 votes and won 19 seats, being 4.3% down on their 2009 tally. In the two electoral Regions that ERIS overlaps, the South East and the South West, Labour gained a seat in each, increasing its vote by just over 6% in each Region.
The system of proportional representation we use in this country for the European election, (different from those we use for the devolved Parliaments and for electing Mayors), is called the d’Hont System, named after the 19thcentury Belgian polymath who devised it. It is not directly proportionate, so a party winning 40% of the vote will not necessarily get 40% of the seats. Although Labour did win 24.4 % of the vote in the 2014 election and won 24% of the seats this was coincidental. UKIP won just over a quarter of the popular vote yet took a third of the seats. Indeed, quite often this system, just like our first past the post method, distorts the result, especially when, as in the UK it is used to decide the result in constituencies based on regions rather than give a proportionate share of seats based on the total aggregate of a nation’s vote.
In the UK, where we have 73 MEPs, except in Northern Ireland where the single transferable vote method is applied to elect 3 representatives, we use the d’Hont System, to decide the result in 11 Regions, based on Wales, Scotland and 9 English Regions. In each of these constituencies MEPs are elected reflecting the number of voters, so Regions vary with between 3 to 10 MEPs elected, depending on the size of the electorate. Each party publishes a list, called a closed list, as the parties, not voters, decide the order of candidates and MEPs are elected from each of the lists in order as a party wins a seat. If that sounds confusing it is actually the easy part of the explanation as to how the formula works!!
To assist an understanding of the d’Hont System and how final results are calculated look at the results from 2014 for the 10 seats in the UK’s South East Region, (Figures 1 and 2), the 6 seats in the South West Region, (Figures 3and 4), together with the example I have provided of the actual calculation showing how the final result was achieved in the South West, (Figure 5).
Figure 1. South East Region – Number of votes cast for each party 2014 election.
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) . | 751,439 |
| Conservative Party | 723,571 |
| Labour Party | 342,775 |
| Green Party | 211,706 |
| Liberal Democrats | 187,876 |
| An Independence From Europe | 45,199 |
| English Democrats | 17,771 |
| British National Party | 16,909 |
| Christian Peoples Alliance | 14,893 |
| The Peace Party | 10,130 |
| The Socialist Party of Great Britain | 5,454 |
| The Roman Party AVE | 2,997 |
| YOURvoice | 2,932 |
| Liberty Great Britain | 2,494 |
| Harmony Party | 1,904 |
Figure 2. South East Region –Successful candidates by vote 2014 election.
| 1 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 751,439.00 | Nigel Paul Farage |
| 2 | Conservative Party | 723,572.00 | Dan Hannan |
| 3 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 375,719.50 | Janice Ann Atkinson |
| 4 | Conservative Party | 361,785.50 | Nirj Deva |
| 5 | Labour Party | 342,775.00 | Annelise Jane Dodds |
| 6 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 250,479.67 | Diane Martine James |
| 7 | Conservative Party | 241,190.33 | Richard James Ashworth |
| 8 | Green Party | 211,706.00 | Keith Richard Taylor |
| 9 | Liberal Democrats | 187,876.00 | Catherine Zena Bearder |
| 10 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 187,859.75 | Ray Finch |
Figure 3. South West Region – Number of votes cast for each party 2014 election.
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 484,184 |
| Conservative Party | 433,151 |
| Labour Party | 206,124 |
| Green Party | 166,447 |
| Liberal Democrats | 160,376 |
| An Independence from Europe | 23,169 |
| English Democrats | 15,081 |
| British National Party | 10,910 |
Figure 4.South West Region – Successful candidates by vote 2014 election.
| 1 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 484,184.00 | William Dartmouth |
| 2 | Conservative Party | 433,151.00 | Ashley Peter Fox |
| 3 | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 242,092.00 | Julia Reid |
| 4 | Conservative Party | 216,575.50 | Julie McCulloch Girling |
| 5 | Labour Party | 206,124.00 | Claire Miranda Moody |
| 6 | Green Party | 166,447.00 | Molly Scott Cato |
Figure 5. Example of d’Hont System calculation using South West Region result 2014 election.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| UKIP | 484,184. 1 | 242,092. 1 | 161,394 | 121,046.0 | 96,836.8 | 80,697.3 |
| Conservative Party | 433,151. 1 | 216,575. 1 | 144,383.66 | 108,287.7 | ||
| Labour Party | 206,124. 1 | |||||
| Green Party | 166,447.1 | |||||
| Liberal Democrats | 160,376.0 |
The d’Hont System works by looking first at the total number of votes cast for each party. The party with the greatest number wins the first seat and its top candidate on its list is elected. That party’s vote is then divided by two and the second count begins. If the winning party on the first count has more votes on the second count than any other party it takes the second seat with the second candidate on its list. This can happen but did not in either the South East or South West Regions in 2014. The party with the highest vote in the second round, often the one that was runner up in the first count, then takes the second seat, again with the candidate top of its list becoming an MEP.
The process continues until all seats in the Region are taken, with each party’s vote in each round being its total vote in the first count divided by a factor of one plus the number of seats it has already won.
In the example I have given UKIP won the first seat in the South West Region in 2014 with 484,184.00 votes. In the second count the Conservatives won a seat with 433,151.00 votes. In the third count UKIP won another seat because its original vote divided by the factor of 2, (one plus the one seat it had already won), gave it 242,092.00 votes, a total still more than the other parties. In the fourth count the Conservatives won their second seat with 216,575.50 votes. As both UKIP’s and the Conservatives new totals in the fifth count, (their original vote divided by 3), were less than Labour’s actual vote of 206,124.00 Labour took a seat, followed by the Green Party in the final count. Had there been 7 seats in the Region then UKIP would have won another because their original vote divided by their number of winning candidates plus one was 161,394.00, just ahead of the Liberal Democrats actual vote. If the Region had 8 seats then the Liberal Democrats would have won it with 160,376.00 votes; if there had been 9 seats the Conservatives would have won another with 144,383.66 votes; if there had been 10 seats UKIP would have won yet another with 121,046.00 votes.
What might happen this year.
So you can see the system is biased against parties that do not get a large number of actual votes and favours parties that stack up votes that effectively are counted more than once. It can distort the result, which may well happen this year in the UK. What could easily occur is that the Brexit Party will secure most of the vote that UKIP won last time, a pretty big proportion of traditional Conservative voters who favour a hard Brexit and some Labour Leave voters too, giving it a total in many Regions that will hand it seats in various of the rounds of counting. In contrast, those parties that favour Remain are divided amongst themselves; they did not agree to field joint candidates and will be competing for the same voters, many likeminded and unsure which Remain party is most likely to benefit best from a tactical vote.
The situation is compounded by Labour’s ambivalent position, trying to keep both Remain and Leave supporters on board. An election used by the media to promote Farage and concentrate on the Conservative leadership crisis rather than Europe oversimplifies the contest, as does seeing it as a re-run of the 2016 referendum or a dummy run for another one. This danger is intensified by the Brexit Party campaigning on the single item of “democracy” being at stake with the referendum result being betrayed and Remain parties arguing against each other for the votes of anti-Brexiteers and concentrating their efforts almost solely on who can assist best in delivering another referendum. Outside of their manifestos none of them are making a positive case for Europe or EU membership, their campaigns so far have been restrained and low key, unlike Farage’s, which is winning all the publicity and setting the agenda.
The Party Manifestos – where they exist!
Dealing with the Leave parties first their manifestos are short and to the point or non-existent!
Conservative Party.
The Conservatives did not want the election and have acted as if it is not taking place. They have no manifesto at all, had no launch of a campaign and other than in some areas where their actual candidates are working with little support, either financially or from party members, there is no activity at all. They are not even bothering to send all households the free election mailshot allowed by law but say they are the only party that can deliver Brexit and take the UK into a “brighter future”. Theresa May’s only involvement publicly has been to visit Bristol the other day to front the single photo-opportunity the Party has had. The expressions on the faces of the candidates for the South West Region as they stood beside her told of their discomfort at being in her presence and the growing feeling of doom. It was impossible for them to do this but had the Conservatives been politically able to do so and had any sense they would not have fielded candidates at all and then would have avoided the inevitable disaster they face at the polls next week.
UK Independence Party.
UKIP has just a 2 page manifesto called “Vote to make Brexit Happen” and warns voters they have been betrayed by the Conservatives and the other Westminster parties, “the political class” as it describes them. It opposes a second referendum and instead wants a “unilateral and unconditional withdrawal” from the EU. Brexit should happen “as quickly as possible” and UKIP commits its MEPs to voting against all legislation in the European Parliament if they take their seats. The party says instead of conducting detailed negotiations the Government should simply offer the EU the option of either continued tariff free trade with the UK or a no deal Brexit. In addition to its concentration on Brexit their manifesto pledges UKIP’s support for the UK’s armed forces and “stands against political correctness and for free speech”.
Brexit Party.
Calling Farage’s organisation a “party” is overdoing it as it has no members other than himself – supporters can pay £25 to register but not actually join, it has no constitution and says it will unveil its policies after the elections are over. It maintains its sole reason for being created earlier this year is to ensure the UK leaves the EU on 31stOctober 2019. Clearly if Farage disappeared so would the Brexit “Party” and, if he is to be believed, which is most unlikely, should Brexit occur on that date the party will then cease to exist!
It has no manifesto, just a pledge card with 6 pledges on it. Farage promises to reject any Brexit deal struck by the Conservatives and Labour, insisting Brexit Party MEPs, if elected, should be given a major role in the talks with the EU to stop a “dodgy” softer Brexit deal between May and Corbyn. He claims that leaving the EU on WTO terms, which would usher in huge rises to tariffs on goods, would provide the country with a “huge opportunity”. The party also rejects the need to pay the £39 billion divorce bill to Brussels and is, of course, vehemently opposed to a second referendum.
Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are the most outspoken party in respect of another referendum, titling their manifesto “Bollocks to Brexit” and are unequivocal in committing themselvesto a second vote. They talk of their “Vision for Britain in Europe” and urge voters to support their plans to tackle climate change by making Britain net zero carbon by 2045. The party is committed to continuing free movement across the EU and pledges to push to treble the budget for the Erasmus university student exchange scheme. It will also aim to create an “emergency Brexit support fund” worth around £7.5 billion to support businesses affected by Brexit “uncertainty”.
Green Party.
The Greens are calling for another referendum and say the Party aims to mobilise “a positive pro-European movement” and set out how a Remain vote will give a “better future for all”. Its manifesto says “While our services were dismantled by privatisation, our communities hollowed out by corporations and our wallets emptied by bankers, Europe was wrongly presented as the cause of these problems by the Leave campaign”. The party says it aims to “recharge the fight against climate change”, will restore opportunities and address inequalities and Green MEPs will help to tackle the causes of Brexit in local communities to ensue “the current chaos never happens again”. Its ambitions include adopting an action plan to tax the super-rich, break up supersized accounting firms and build an EU-wide Green New Deal to create high skilled jobs.
Change UK (or the Independent Group).
In its manifesto, “Charter for Remain” this new party says the EU election gives voters the chance to send a message that they want another referendum and to stay in the EU. The party argues Brexit has “stifled the debate and prevented us from focusing on the real challenges we need to solve”. As well as campaigning for a second referendum and to Remain Change UK says its MEPs would push for an “open, frictionless border” in Ireland. Its MEPs would argue for reaching carbon net zero emissions at least by 2050 and support the recruitment and retention of NHS nurses and doctors.
Plaid Cymru.
The Welsh Nationalists say a vote for Plaid is a vote for Wales to stay to stay inside the EU. Its manifesto commits it to a “final say” referendum that will pit a Brexit deal against the choice of Wales remaining in Europe. It says its ultimate goal is for Wales, which voted forBrexit, to “have its own voice”and “become a member of the EU in our own right”. Plaid Cymru has also pledged to maintain the Erasmus student programme and the EU railcard. It says the election is “our opportunity to send a message to the UK establishment that it cannot ignore: we are appalled by its actions since the referendum and we reject the UK’s parties’ plans for a dangerous, damaging Brexit”.Their manifesto includes plans to use 100% renewable electricity by 2035 and calls for a 5 year, £5 billion “transformative economic plan” to support deprived communities. Plaid also pledges to create a Welsh migration system if it is in government.
Scottish National Party.
The SNP has a manifesto called “Scotland’s for Europe” and says the party will keep working with others across the UK to stop Brexit in its tracks. It also supports a second referendum with the option to Remain on the ballot paper. It commits itself to back the revocation of Article 50 if a no deal Brexit is the only alternative. The SNP says if the UK leaves the EU it will campaign for another independence referendum for Scotland so that it can be an independent country within the EU.
An International approach to today’s problems.
One element that is common and looms large in the manifestos of the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Change UK is how the UK approaches the major challenges facing us in the modern world. All three parties emphasise the need for another referendum and want to reverse the decision of the 2016 one because they do not see the nation state as being capable on its own of dealing with these challenges. All stress we cannot address the large issues facing our country and the world today – climate change, globalisation, protectionism, crime,terrorism, rapid advances in technology and many more – without international co-operation, working together jointly across borders to find common solutions to make life better for citizens of all nations, irrespective of race, religion, ethnic origin, sexual orientation or gender. This, of course, is the complete opposite of the Brexit agenda and the poison peddled by populists, here and abroad.
Labour’s “campaign” In the European elections.
John is going to deal with Labour’s manifesto in detail so I will not comment on it except to make one observation in a minute. However, I cannot let a discussion of the 2019 European election in the UK take place without stating my own views on how Labour is approaching it and to condemn its low key campaign -if that is not being too generous in describing as a campaign its lack of activity and failure to take on the Brexit Party in particular.
These elections are historically important with the rise of Right wing populism here and abroad. We need to defeat the far Right, confront racism, the threat of authoritarianism and violence. Labour will send MEPs to Europe if we do not leave before early July and these will form part of the Socialist Group in their battle to oppose populist parties from across the Continent. If Labour were to take these elections seriously this would help shift the political balance in the EU Parliament, with a transformative effect on the EU and at home. I will vote Labour next week as I always do, but this time with little enthusiasm. I will do so out of loyalty to my party, the party of trade unionism and because I want to see Labour MEPs in Europe joining their socialist colleagues against the growing forces of the Right. I am fearful that many others, who traditionally vote Labour, will not do so this time. Nor would I blame them for that.
We should be campaigning ceaselessly against populism here and stopping Farage and the Brexit Party having a free run on 23rdMay. So far we have not done it. Labour has just 5 sentences on populism and the threat of the Right in its manifesto and has hardly raised the issue in the campaign. It should be confronting racism daily, arguing against naked nationalism and calling out Farage for the liar and xenophobe that he is. We should also give up on trying to court Leave voters and helping to deliver a soft Brexit. Instead we should be explaining what Brexit really means and that even a soft one will seriously damage the economy and especially many of those communities in disadvantaged areas that voted Leave in the referendum. Our current position on Brexit is not only letting down the majority of our members and supporters who favour Remain, it is actually against the real interests of those who want to no longer be part of the EU.
Labour’s European election “campaign” to date has been appalling, not just because we are fudging our position on Brexit and a second referendum but because of our ambivalence towards Europe. For a party under Jeremy Corbyn that prides itself on its campaigning ability we are unnaturally low key this time round. Only Tom Watson, Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry seem to be out on the stomp and having a high profile in the media, other Shadow Cabinet members have taken contradictory positions, some emphasising Labour’s “option” of another referendum and others, like Barry Gardiner, saying bluntly we are a Brexit party seeking to “bail out” the Government to deliver an agreement with Brussels! With all this confusion and contradiction Labour will suffer disaster at the polls as hard core Leavers will vote Brexit anyway and Remainers will defect to Remain parties.
There are no resources being put into the campaign, leaflets are few and far between and their content is appalling. On May Day I was delivering Labour leaflets and they were written as if the election was a national one being fought on domestic issues. When I received my election address through the post it was a bit more comprehensive but included the very same photographs and text, with very little else and virtually nothing about Europe. It is as if the Party just wants the election to go away! I understand it has decided the real priority is to hold our seat at the Peterborough by-election in early June and that most resources are being funnelled toward that. If that is so it is madness, as allowing the Brexit Party major electoral success in the run up to the Peterborough poll is just courting electoral defeat there too and has long term implications for the party in future national elections.
Jeremy Corbyn has said the local election results in early May showed that the public wanted the Government and Opposition to get on with Brexit, get a deal with Europe as soon as possible and then move on to other pressing matters. I see those results as saying just the opposite. In the 2017 general election Labour’s strategy did work as it held on to a good proportion of its Leave voters and won the support of many Remainers too as at that time Remainers saw voting Labour as the best option for keeping in the EU. (It rankles with many of them now to be told Labour had a manifesto promising to honour the outcome of the referendum so they were actually endorsing Brexit by voting Labour). Polling clearly shows that now a majority of voters are against Brexit and that hard core of previous Labour voters who favour a clean break, who want a no deal Brexit, they have already defected to either the Conservatives or the hard Brexit parties like Farage’s or UKIP. They cannot be appeased by a Brexit fudge and will not be won back by offering one.
The local election results actually endorse this view and demonstrate the grave danger Labour faces by losing the support of Remainers who are giving up on the party to deliver another referendum
and thereby reverse Brexit. On 2ndMay Brexit parties, (the Conservatives and UKIP), did spectacularly badly and only the Remain parties, (Liberal Democrats and Greens), increased their votes and seats nationwide. Labour did badly too overall, not because it only suffered by losing Leave voters, which it did to a limited extent, but because it lost many more votes to those parties offering a clear message on Remain. In Sunderland, for example, which is held up as place where Labour was defeated because of a backlash by Brexiteers, there was in the 2016 referendum a 39% vote for Remain and most of this came from Labour voters. This year as well as losing seats to pro-Brexit parties in Sunderland Labour lost others to the Liberals and Greens there, and votes to them in other wards that allowed the Leave parties to steel Labour seats. This pattern was repeated in other places across the country.
To support my argument I want to refer to the latest data released yesterday by YouGov, the only polling organisation to predict the actual result of the 2017 general election. In an article by Peter Kellner the electoral problems facing Labour on 23rdMay have been laid bare. They are frightening.
After the local elections Labour was estimated to be on 26% of the vote for the European poll and on course to increase its MEPs by 4. A week agothat figure had reduced to 21%. Now it is at 16% and is falling rapidly. Kellner explains why.
He says there is a 3 to 1 split in favour of Remain parties rather than Leave parties of Labour voters from the 2017 general election who are now deserting Labour for other parties. He estimates over half of 2017 Labour voters plan to vote for Remain parties next week and that only 40% will stick with Labour. Of 2017 Labour voters who are Leavers 30% are staying loyal to the party and 50% have already or will defect to Brexit parties. Also, 10% of Labour Leave voters now support Remain parties, which is consistent with other surveys that have shown a significant number of Labour Leave voters, but not Labour Remainers, changing their minds on Brexit since 2016.
Kellner adds a fair number of Labour Leave voters, so far loyal, will next week move to a Leave party, most likely Farage’s. But the 2 to 1 margin of Remain to Leave voters in 2016 has now widened to 3 to 1, meaning the number of Labour Remain defectors to Remain parties is 3 times the number defecting to Leave parties – and it is increasing!
Also remember it was not working class Labour Leavers that led to the Brexit decision. The largest block of Leave voters in 2016 was made up of 5.6 million middle class Conservatives, followed by 4.4 working class Conservative supporters. Middle class Labour Leavers accounted for 1.6 million votes and 2.2 million working class Labour voters went for Brexit. So only 1 in 8 Leave voters was a working class Labour voter, the so-called “left behind” voters of Wales, the Midlands and the north of England.
Labour’s strategy of appealing to both groups is failing spectacularly. In purely electoral terms the party has far more to lose by not being openly Remain than it has by courting Leave voters. It will pay a very high price, not just next Thursday, but at the next General Election, if it keeps to this policy.
But more importantly, on principle, Jeremy Corbyn and Labour should be at the forefront of the fight against populism and Right wing nationalism at home and abroad. We should be challenging every word and every dubious claim of Farage, defending democracy against this rabble rousing demagogue,and speaking with a clear, internationalist voice up to and beyond polling day, not just hoping this election would go away so Labour can continue dreaming about socialism in one country.